The only certainty about the Guardians and the No. 1 overall pick is that it will be a close call right up until the very end. There are strategic and financial advantages to not making a decision or revealing it until the draft begins at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, and Cleveland is keeping quiet.
The Guardians will weigh both their ability and their signability, with their choice likely coming down to three college hitters: Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana, Georgia outfielder/third baseman Charlie Condon and West Virginia middle infielder JJ Wetherholt. Condon would command the biggest bonus and could break Paul Skenes’ $9.2 million draft record even if he doesn’t go at No. 1. Bazzana likely falls to the Athletics at No. 4 if Cleveland lets him go, while Wetherholt could peak at No. 5 for the White Sox if he’s not the top selection.
Florida first baseman/left-handed pitcher Jac Caglianone, Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns and Arkansas left-hander Hagen Smith also could play at some point, but are not yet certain.
1. Guards: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State (No. 1)
Since we’ve gotten into the habit of assigning percentages to the possible outcomes of this pick, I’ll update mine: Bazzana 34 percent, Condon 33 percent, Wetherholt 32 percent, the field 1 percent. As noted above, these are just educated guesses.
2. Reds: Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Georgia (#2)
Condon to the Reds feels like the biggest certainty in the first few picks, if he’s available. Cincinnati is looking at the same six college players as Cleveland, with Caglianone and Burns as backup plans.
3. Rockies: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest (No. 6)
The Rockies would also not hesitate to let Condon go and may have the same six players as the teams before them. Assuming Condon doesn’t last that long, they would likely go to pitching (Burns seems to be ahead of Smith) rather than Caglianone.
4. Track and Field: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest (No. 7)
The A’s would pick up Bazzana if the Guardians go in a different direction. Oakland will take a college prospect and almost certainly a bat, with Kurtz, Caglianone and Texas A&M right fielder Braden Montgomery the top contenders. If Kurtz or Montgomery don’t find a home here, they could fall to the bottom of the top 10, giving the A’s some leverage.
5. White Sox: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida (#3)
The White Sox faced a decision between Wetherholt and Mississippi prep shortstop/outfielder Konnor Griffin, but that was before Caglianone held out a little longer than expected. If he’s gone, Chicago may lean toward Griffin, who would come at a discount because concerns about his swing outweigh his enormous ceiling (the highest in the draft) for several clubs and could slide him out of the top 10.
6. Royals: Hagen Smith, left-handed, Arkansas (No. 5)
Everyone knows the Royals love both Smith and California high school shortstop Bryce Rainer. It would be a surprise if they picked someone else.
7. Cardinals: JJ Wetherholt, SS/2B, West Virginia (#4)
The Cardinals could take one of the college arms if they can get this far, which is a strong possibility since their only solid landing spots are Burns at No. 3 and Smith at No. 6. They’d go with Smith over Burns, and with both gone, Wetherholt would be a logical choice. Kurtz and Rainer could also fit.
8. Angels: Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M (No. 8)
The choice could be as simple as who goes to the Angels. In this scenario, it’s Montgomery. Otherwise, Wetherholt, one of the college arms, or Kurtz could be in the mix. Don’t rule out Rainer either. Several clubs believe Los Angeles could seek a discount deal with a college bat such as Tennessee second baseman Christian Moore, Oklahoma State outfielder Carson Benge, or Kentucky outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt.
9. Pirates: James Tibbs, OF, Florida State (No. 12)
Like the Angels, the Pirates are waiting to see who falls while also considering options below the slot. That could be Kurtz’s landing spot if the A’s don’t take him. If the eight players projected above all come off the board, Pittsburgh could save some money with Tibbs, Moore or Benge. It could also aim for a ceiling with Griffin or Rainer.
10. Nationals: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif. (No. 10)
It would fit the Nationals’ M.O. to take a high-ceiling player like Rainer or Griffin. They also wouldn’t mind taking a shot at the college players projected with the top eight picks above.
11. Tigers: Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson Prep, Flowood, Miss. (no. 9)
Griffin’s ceiling would be tough to pass at No. 11, while Kurtz would be a nice talent value if he slides. Despite strong ties to Arizona prep left-hander Cam Caminiti for a while, the Tigers might be more inclined to consider a cheaper option like Tibbs, Florida State third baseman Cam Smith or Texas high school infielder Theo Gillen.
12. Red Sox: Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee (No. 13)
If a surprise doesn’t drop to 12, the Red Sox will likely select from a pool of a dozen or so guys in the second division of college bats. The top contenders are Moore, Smith, Benge and Waldschmidt. That’s likely the ceiling for Wake Forest third baseman/outfielder Seaver King, Louisiana State third baseman Tommy White and North Carolina outfielder Vance Honeycutt. If Boston wants pitchers, East Carolina right-hander Trey Yesavage would be the obvious choice.
13. Giants: Cam Caminiti, left-handed, Saguaro HS, Scottsdale, Arizona (No. 15)
Kurtz could fall below the top six college bats, but that would be his absolute minimum. Unless Rainer or Griffin otherwise falls, the Giants will decide between Caminiti and Yesavage.
14. Cubs: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina (No. 11)
The Cubs also don’t hold out much hope for Kurtz, Rainer or Griffin. Yesavage would be a nice addition to a farm system that lacks pitching depth. With Tibbs and Moore gone in this scenario, Smith, Stanford catcher Malcolm Moore and King would be the contenders.
15. Mariners: Jurrangelo Cijntje, RHP/LHP, Mississippi State (#25)
The Mariners favor a pitcher, coveting Yesavage and would like to land switch-pitching Cijntje. Right-hander Ryan Sloan out of Illinois High School might be the next arm on their list, with Waldschmidt as the best position player available. Arkansas Prep outfielder Slade Caldwell is a sleeper here.
16. Marlins: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State (No. 14)
Get ready for a run at college bats, starting now. Tibbs, Christian Moore, Smith, Benge and King are all potential targets for the Marlins, who could consider Cijntje.
17. Brewers: Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State (No. 18)
More college batters: Christian Moore, Smith, Benge, Honeycutt, King.
18. Rays: Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky (#23)
And more college bats: Waldschmidt, Smith, Benge, Malcolm Moore. Cijntje and Gillen would be possibilities from different demographics.
19. Mets: Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina (#22)
And more college batters: Benge, Honeycutt, King.
20. Blue Jays: Seaver King, 3B/OF, Wake Forest (#17)
And more college hitters: the four guys projected to go 16-19, plus King, Sam Houston catcher Walker Janek, Louisiana State third baseman Tommy White and California catcher Caleb Lomavita.
21. Twins: Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee (#32)
More college bats: Honeycutt, King, Amick. The Twins also might consider right-handed pitcher William Schmidt from Louisiana high school and try to swipe him for their next selection at No. 33.
22. Orioles: Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa (No. 21)
Brecht has a similar ceiling but more risk than the top college arms, Smith and Burns. The Orioles could also keep the college position players in Waldschmidt, Amick, White and Kansas State shortstop Kaelen Culpepper.
23. Dodgers: Theo Gillen, SS/2B, Westlake HS, Austin, Texas (#28)
The Dodgers appear to be shifting their focus from pitchers like Brecht, Schmidt and left-handed pitcher Kash Mayfield to high school shortstops (led by Gillen and Kellon Lindsey) and Caldwell.
24. Braves: Braylon Doughty, RHP, Chapparal HS, Temecula, Calif. (#36)
The Braves are hungry for the right college hitter (Benge, Waldschmidt, King) who can slip to No. 24. If that doesn’t happen, they’re crazy about Doughty, who has helium and would be their fifth straight first-round pitcher.
25. Padres: Kash Mayfield, left-hander, Elk City (Okla.) HS (No. 30)
Speaking of streaks, the Padres have taken prepsters with their last seven first-rounders and three additional first-rounders. They could keep that going with Doughty, Mayfield, Sloan, South Carolina high school outfielder P.J. Morlando or Schmidt.
26. Yankees: Ryan Sloan, RHP, York HS, Elmhurst, Ill. (no. 19)
The Yankees would like a pitcher, and most of the best values in this scenario would be high schoolers Doughty, Mayfield, Sloan and Bryce Meccage. White would be the best college batting option for New York, which is also the ceiling for New Jersey prep shortstop Luke Dickerson.
27. Phillies: Tommy White, 3B, Louisiana State (No. 20)
The Phillies would love to add a college bat, with the top options remaining including White, Amick and Culpepper. Morlando is a high school hitting prospect and they aren’t afraid of prep arms either, which could lead them to Doughty, Mayfield, Sloan or Schmidt.
28. Astros: Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee HS, Wauchula, Fla. (no. 29)
The Astros have been linked to the second tier of high school shortstops (Gillen, Lindsey, Tyson Lewis, Carter Johnson, Wyatt Sanford) and the top group of college catchers (Janek, Moore, Lomavita). They also like Virginia shortstop Griff O’Ferrall, who is starting to come into play around this point in the draft.
29. Diamondbacks: Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford (#26)
Because the Diamondbacks own three of the next seven picks, they are being paired with several players from different demographics: college hitters (the three catchers, Amick, Culpepper, Mississippi State outfielder Dakota Jordan), high school batters (Gillen, Caldwell, Lindsey, Morlando, Lewis) and prep arms (Mayfield, Sloan, Schmidt).
30. Rangers: Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston (#24)
The Rangers wouldn’t mind adding a catcher in Moore, Janek or maybe Lomavita. The high school shortstops and Caldwell could happen here too.
Additional first round picks
31. Diamondbacks: Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View HS, Jonesboro, Ark. (no. 27)
32. Orioles: Griff O’Ferrall, SS, Virginia (#38)
33. Twins: Caleb Lomavita, C, California (#33)
34. Brewers: Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State (#31)
35. Diamondbacks: Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State (No. 34)
36. Guardians: William Schmidt, RHP, Catholic HS, Baton Rouge, La. (no. 16)
37. Pirates: Drew Beam, RHP, Tennessee (#64)
38. Rockies: PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville (SC) HS (#43)
39. Royals: David Shields, left-handed, Mt. Lebanon (Pa.) HS (no. 41)